A recent inquiry from a dealer-appraiser raised a pertinent question; with significant changes in the world over the past year, have rare book, manuscript, and map appraisals issued in the mid-2019s ought/should they be revised?
There are two answers.
Valuation is generally determined on long term trends but when there are tectonic shifts and if auction prices hew high and low, should appraisals reflect short term reality?
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Charts and Analyses is a link to a series of year by year charts accessible while signed in as a paid member:
Using these charts it’s possible to examine 2019 month by month to compare the first 4 months [soon 5 months] of 2020 whether the market is holding firm.
And the answers are yes, yes, and not quite.
The pace of auction lots are holding, that said, the year over year norm has been that that number increases about 3.5% a year. So, because there is no current gain that’s a bit unusual.
The percentage of lots sold is also vital and it is a reasonable conjecture that the percentage of lots sold would be declining given the Covid crisis. This year the sell through rate has actually inched up from 80.4% in 2019 to 82.4% in 2020. This has been unexpected and frequently commented on in the Weekly Auction Updates.
And now for the not quite – and this may be meaningful. The median lot price is running soft. This is unsurprising because auction houses world-wide carefully manage low estimates to ensure success for all parties. So it’s logical that in this Covid period estimates are trending down. And said another way, when/if estimates begin to trend higher this will be a forward indicator that the auction market is believing the worst is behind us. Fingers crossed!
And a reminder that research members can also chart market expectations for any material in the Transaction Database. To do this run your search, select relevant records by marking them, then run the Get Current Estimate for a custom prepared report in 15 seconds.
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 27th March 2025
Forum, Mar. 27: Dürer (Albrecht) Hierin sind begriffen vier bücher von menschlicher Proportion, 4 parts in 1, first edition, Nuremberg, Hieronymus Andreae for Agnes Dürer, 1528. £30,000 to £40,000.
Forum, Mar. 27: Book of Hours, Use of Rome, illuminated manuscript in Latin, on vellum, 26 fine hand-painted miniatures, 17th century dark brown morocco, [Lyon], [c. 1475 and later c. 1490-1500]. £25,000 to £35,000.
Forum, Mar. 27: Brontë (Emily) The North Wind, watercolour, [1842]. £15,000 to £20,000.
Forum, Mar. 27: Titanic.- Mudd (Thomas Cupper, one of the youngest victims of the sinking of the Titanic, 1895-1912) Autograph Letter signed on board RMS Titanic to his mother, April 11th 1912. £20,000 to £30,000.
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 27th March 2025
Forum, Mar. 27: [Austen (Jane)] Emma: A Novel, 3 vol., first edition, for John Murray, 1816. £10,000 to £15,000.
Forum, Mar. 27: Picasso (Pablo).- Ovid. Les Metamorphoses, one of 95 copies, signed by the artist, Lausanne, Albert Skira, 1931. £10,000 to £15,000.
Forum, Mar. 27: America.- Ogilby (John) America: Being the Latest, and Most Accurate Description of the New World..., all maps with vibrant hand-colouring in outline, probably by an early hand, 1671. £15,000 to £25,000.
Forum, Mar. 27: Iceland.- Geological exploration.- Bright (Dr. Richard )and Edward Bird. Collection of twenty original drawings from travels in Iceland with Henry Holland and George Mackenzie, watercolours, [1810]. £20,000 to £30,000.
Forum Auctions The Library of Barry Humphries 26th March 2025
Forum, Mar. 26: Beckford (William) [Vathek] An Arabian Tale, first (but unauthorised) edition, Lady Caroline Lamb's copy with her signature and notes, 1786. £2,000 to £3,000.
Forum, Mar. 26: Baudelaire (Charles) Les Fleurs du Mal, first edition containing the 6 suppressed poems, first issue, contemporary half black morocco, Paris, 1857. £4,000 to £6,000.
Forum, Mar. 26: Beardsley (Aubrey).- Pope (Alexander) The Rape of the Lock, one of 25 copies on Japanese vellum, Leonard Smithers, 1896. £4,000 to £6,000.
Forum, Mar. 26: Douglas (Lord Alfred) Sonnets, first edition, the dedication copy, with signed presentation inscription from the author to his wife Olive Custance, The Academy, 1909. £2,000 to £3,000.
Forum Auctions The Library of Barry Humphries 26th March 2025
Forum, Mar. 26: Crowley (Aleister) The Works..., 3 vol. in 1 (as issued)"Essay Competition" issue on India paper, signed presentation inscription from the author, 1905-07. £1,500 to £2,000.
Forum, Mar. 26: Rodin (Auguste).- Mirbeau (Octave) Le Jardin des Supplices, one of 30 copies on chine with an additional suite, bound in dark purple goatskin, Paris, 1902. £3,000 to £4,000.
Forum, Mar. 26: Pellar (Hans) Eight original book illustrations for 'Der verliebte Flamingo' [together with] a published copy of the first edition of the book, 1923. £6,000 to £8,000.
Forum, Mar. 26: Cretté (Georges, binder).- Louÿs (Pierre) Les Aventures du Roi Pausole, 2 vol., one of 99 copies, with 2 original drawings, superbly bound in blue goatskin, gilt, Paris, 1930. £3,000 to £4,000.
Sotheby's Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
Sotheby’s: The Shem Tov Bible, 1312 | A Masterpiece from the Golden Age of Spain. Sold: 6,960,000 USD
Sotheby’s: Ten Commandments Tablet, 300-800 CE | One of humanity's earliest and most enduring moral codes. Sold: 5,040,000 USD
Sotheby’s: William Blake | Songs of Innocence and of Experience. Sold: 4,320,000 USD
Sotheby’s: The Declaration of Independence | The Holt printing, the only copy in private hands. Sold: 3,360,000 USD
Sotheby's Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
Sotheby’s: Thomas Taylor | The original cover art for Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. Sold: 1,920,000 USD
Sotheby’s: Machiavelli | Il Principe, a previously unrecorded copy of the book where modern political thought began. Sold: 576,000 GBP
Sotheby’s: Leonardo da Vinci | Trattato della pittura, ca. 1639, a very fine pre-publication manuscript. Sold: 381,000 GBP
Sotheby’s: Henri Matisse | Jazz, Paris 1947, the complete portfolio. Sold: 312,000 EUR
Swann Printed & Manuscript African Americana March 20, 2025
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 7: Thomas Fisher, The Negro's Memorial or Abolitionist's Catechism, London, 1825. $6,000 to $9,000.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 78: Victor H. Green, The Negro Travelers' Green Book, New York, 1958. $20,000 to $30,000.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 99: Rosa Parks, Hand-written recollection of her first meeting with Martin Luther King Jr., autograph manuscript, Detroit, c. 1990s. $30,000 to $40,000.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 154: Frederick Douglass, Autograph statement on voting rights, signed manuscript, 1866. $20,000 to $30,000.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 164: W.E.B. Du Bois, What the Negro Has Done for the United States and Texas, Washington, circa 1936. $3,000 to $4,000.
Swann Printed & Manuscript African Americana March 20, 2025
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 263: Susan Paul, Memoir of James Jackson, Boston, 1835. $6,000 to $9,000.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 267: Langston Hughes, Gypsy Ballads, signed translation of García Lorca's poetry, Madrid, 1937. $1,500 to $2,500.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 274: Malcolm X, Collection from Alex Haley's estate, 38 items, 1963-1971. $4,000 to $6,000.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 367: Solomon Northup, Twelve Years a Slave, Auburn, NY, 1853. $2,500 to $3,500.
Swann, Mar. 20: Lot 402: Anna Julia Cooper, A Voice from the South, Xenia, OH, 1892. $2,000 to $3,000.
Koller, Mar. 26: Wit, Frederick de. Atlas. Amsterdam, de Wit, [1680]. CHF 20,000 to 30,000
Koller, Mar. 26: Merian, Maria Sibylla. Der Raupen wunderbare Verwandelung, und sonderbare Blumennahrung. Nürnberg, 1679; Frankfurt a. M. und Leipzig, 1683. CHF 20,000 to 30,000
Koller, Mar. 26: GOETHE, JOHANN WOLFGANG VON. Faust. Ein Fragment. Von Goethe. Ächte Ausgabe. Leipzig, G. J. Göschen, 1790. CHF 7,000 to 10,000
Koller, Mar. 26: Hieronymus. [Das hochwirdig leben der außerwoelten freünde gotes der heiligen altuaeter]. Augsburg, Johann Schönsperger d. Ä., 9. Juni 1497. CHF 40,000 to 60,000.
Koller, Mar. 26: BIBLIA GERMANICA - Neunte deutsche Bibel. Nürnberg, A. Koberger, 17. Feb. 1483. CHF 40,000 to 60,000
Koller, Mar. 26: HORAE B.M.V. - Stundenbuch. Lateinische Handschrift auf Pergament, Kalendarium französisch. Nordfrankreich (Rouen?). CHF 25,000 to 40,000
![<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> Book of Hours, Use of Rome, illuminated manuscript in Latin, on vellum, 26 fine hand-painted miniatures, 17th century dark brown morocco, [Lyon], [c. 1475 and later c. 1490-1500]. £25,000 to £35,000.](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/1d4e3614-8c6e-4405-9784-fccc9af6f069.png "<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> Book of Hours, Use of Rome, illuminated manuscript in Latin, on vellum, 26 fine hand-painted miniatures, 17th century dark brown morocco, [Lyon], [c. 1475 and later c. 1490-1500]. £25,000 to £35,000.")
![<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> Brontë (Emily) <i>The North Wind,</i> watercolour, [1842]. £15,000 to £20,000.](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/cdae56c0-f6c2-49f9-aa96-cb45addacd4e.png "<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> Brontë (Emily) <i>The North Wind,</i> watercolour, [1842]. £15,000 to £20,000.")
![<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> [Austen (Jane)] <i>Emma: A Novel,</i> 3 vol., first edition, for John Murray, 1816. £10,000 to £15,000.](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/ba9a41af-fc2f-4232-b3ab-c2df1eee9335.png "<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> [Austen (Jane)] <i>Emma: A Novel,</i> 3 vol., first edition, for John Murray, 1816. £10,000 to £15,000.")
![<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> Iceland.- Geological exploration.- Bright (Dr. Richard )and Edward Bird. Collection of twenty original drawings from travels in Iceland with Henry Holland and George Mackenzie, watercolours, [1810]. £20,000 to £30,000.](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/2a143987-f930-4a0f-a2e9-c1d7c73846c3.png "<b>Forum, Mar. 27:</b> Iceland.- Geological exploration.- Bright (Dr. Richard )and Edward Bird. Collection of twenty original drawings from travels in Iceland with Henry Holland and George Mackenzie, watercolours, [1810]. £20,000 to £30,000.")
![<b>Forum, Mar. 26:</b> Beckford (William) [Vathek] <i>An Arabian Tale,</i> first (but unauthorised) edition, Lady Caroline Lamb's copy with her signature and notes, 1786. £2,000 to £3,000.](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/3b9e9f17-a38a-48d3-8002-704791674917.png "<b>Forum, Mar. 26:</b> Beckford (William) [Vathek] <i>An Arabian Tale,</i> first (but unauthorised) edition, Lady Caroline Lamb's copy with her signature and notes, 1786. £2,000 to £3,000.")
![<b>Forum, Mar. 26:</b> Pellar (Hans) Eight original book illustrations for 'Der verliebte Flamingo' [together with] a published copy of the first edition of the book, 1923. £6,000 to £8,000.](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/2e38d43d-301f-4367-aa55-51fffc7fe85b.png "<b>Forum, Mar. 26:</b> Pellar (Hans) Eight original book illustrations for 'Der verliebte Flamingo' [together with] a published copy of the first edition of the book, 1923. £6,000 to £8,000.")
![<b>Koller, Mar. 26:</b> Wit, Frederick de. Atlas. Amsterdam, de Wit, [1680]. CHF 20,000 to 30,000](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/2214ca86-0dc9-47be-8bc5-99d9f1c2aa1f.jpg "<b>Koller, Mar. 26:</b> Wit, Frederick de. Atlas. Amsterdam, de Wit, [1680]. CHF 20,000 to 30,000")
![<b>Koller, Mar. 26:</b> Hieronymus. [Das hochwirdig leben der außerwoelten freünde gotes der heiligen altuaeter]. Augsburg, Johann Schönsperger d. Ä., 9. Juni 1497. CHF 40,000 to 60,000.](https://pjupgrade-staging.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/b8b6a630-a01a-4220-ae77-38540d6c898d.jpg "<b>Koller, Mar. 26:</b> Hieronymus. [Das hochwirdig leben der außerwoelten freünde gotes der heiligen altuaeter]. Augsburg, Johann Schönsperger d. Ä., 9. Juni 1497. CHF 40,000 to 60,000.")
